BEIJING - I was recently in Italy, where some officials gave me the following document because they were unsure about its authenticity. It was attributed to North Korean "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il. I found it difficult to take seriously and attempts to verify its authenticity have been in vain. Pyongyang has yet to say whether it is genuine or a forgery. In either case, it offers a weird yet fascinating perspective on Italy, the world, and the present crisis.
Dear Mr Silvio Berlusconi:
I really envy and admire you for the ideal position in which you have placed your country. For decades, I have tried to be in the same political spot, but I failed while you managed it. I salute you.
Italy is now very weak, but it is the fuse that may start a global economic wildfire - one that could burn down the whole global economy as we know it. The default of Italy could bring down the euro, which in turn could kindle a second deeper recession on the old continent. This could push overboard the already shaky American GDP, and as a consequence, it could cause a global economic meltdown. The chain reaction is uncertain, but the size of Italy and of its problems makes it possible if not likely.
Developed and developing countries have got too much to lose to risk to starting this chain reaction. They are better off by simply trying to prevent it. Therefore, they know a crisis in Italy must be averted. The November 3 u-turn in Greece, whose premier decided to scrap the proposed referendum on the acceptance of the reforms imposed by the EU, leaves Italy alone on the frontline of the crisis. Rome alone can start the chain reaction leading to the meltdown. This is a huge responsibility - but also offers Italy immense power to blackmail other countries.
For decades, I tried to thrive by blackmailing Japan, South Korea, the US, or China. I told them, "give me money, or else I'll throw a missile on Tokyo, explode an atomic test near Seoul, bomb a US garrison or a ship, or starve my own people to death." But unfortunately, I managed to get little. My threats were at best local, and thus they could only bring small, limited disturbances to regional economies that grew bigger and ever more confident of their strength and smug before my threats. A one-day crash in the Tokyo stock exchange prompted by a missile flying over Japan would get me a pittance in return. If I decided to press ahead, I would be invaded and toppled, so what could I do? I would have had to step down, give up my grand brinkmanship, and satisfy myself with less and less.
But you are in a very different position. If you play your brinkmanship well, you can blackmail the whole world and get whatever you want from it.
The other European powers and America demand deep cuts and reform of your system? [Exclamation deleted] them, why didn't they wake up earlier, and why did they dither for months over the tiny Greek problem? They want you to step down and give more guarantees to the markets? [Exclamation deleted] them, why did they let you rule for many years and ignore for a long time growing signs of a political cancer devouring Italy from the inside?
They think they can split you from the Italian people? Ah! Do they think the Italians would agree to be de facto invaded by their northern neighbors and become a second-rate junior partner under Franco-German tutelage? No way.
They don't believe it? You can call general elections and have a referendum asking democratically if the Italians want to suffer while other countries save their skin. They think they can expel you from the EU? Let them try it. Even if an expulsion from the euro were to mean the temporary collapse of the Italian economy and skyrocketing inflation, you can explain that Italians have decades of experience in finding a way out of a crisis through inflation. You can promise the Italian people that inflation today means more jobs tomorrow. What have you got to lose? They, the other countries, have got a lot to lose, as they have no firewall to protect against a crisis that starts in Italy.
They have to come to terms with you, and you can blackmail them. Moreover, you can clinch a powerful deal on the way out of the crisis and the future situation of Italy in Europe and in the world.
What can happen to you?
The two most powerful Europeans, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, do not need a strong Italian counterpart. And you, Berlusconi, beleaguered by scandals and blunders, are weak enough to make them to think you will buckle under their pressure. Therefore, they can have an interest in keeping you in power.
The motley and confused congregation of Italian parties and cumbersome electoral law make it possible that no clear result could come out of a general election.
The only real way out for Europe or Italy would be to directly elect a prime minister who would select his government without blackmail from different parties. The parliament should then control the premier but not hold him hostage. Are Italian parties or their European counterparts willing to walk this path? Will President Giorgio Napolitano take the lead in pushing reform in this direction? Can he do it?
It is very unlikely. All of them are mired in thousands of problems that obstruct the picture. But this is the best situation for your brinkmanship and blackmail. Is it unethical? Nonsense. The only ethical politicians are the dead ones, and you have to play the cards you were dealt by life.
Certainly, you have to be very prudent. You will have many enemies hunting for your scalp, and in brinkmanship you can easily walk over the brink. But you are a survivor like no one else, and you can do it. Reselect your team and fight.
I wish you well.
With admiration, Jong-il Kim (2011-11-09 Asia Times)
