BEIJING - China is seeking answers to the question of what its future will look like by studying the ruins of Pompeii. In groups of 20, five times a year for the past six years, delegations from the Central Party School, the top institute for selecting the country's high-ranking leaders, have gone almost on a pilgrimage to the ruins of the ancient Roman city that in AD79 was buried under the ashes of the volcano Mount Vesuvius.

The Chinese, without gods and with few faiths, believe that to understand their destiny and the DNA of the United States, the lone superpower, and China's political and cultural quasi-lighthouse, they must also understand ancient history. Approximately 90% of the 3,000 years of Western history, from the Greeks of Pythagoras to the enlightenment of Beccaria, is in Italy, the weakest of the four strongest countries in Europe.

Pompeii is the past that re-emerges from the earth and speaks not only to the present but also to the future because the ruins pulled out from the layers of ash will continue to exist for the next generations. This is not only true for Italy but for the world that today chases the dream of speed and change led by America, a country founded in English but with a Latin motto e pluribus unum ("out of many, one") and under the guidance of the Imperial Roman eagle.

The ruins of Pompeii - resuscitated bit by bit starting in the 1700s, almost by Pythagorean metempsychosis, thanks to the diggings of German proto-archaeologist Johann Winkelmann - are disappearing again into the earth. Dust to dust; earth to earth.

Last week, a third house of the ruins of Pompeii - perhaps by negligence, silliness or something else - collapsed, returning to the earth that covered it until three centuries ago. This is not just a small or large national scandal; it is a sign. Seen from the outside, from as far away as China, it is a symbol of a crumbling Italy and a failing Europe Union, without a clear or malicious fault.

Nobody intentionally wished to destroy the ruins of Pompeii, crushing it with a bulldozer, blowing it up with dynamite, or removing the stones one by one with a stake. No one is that evil. No one simply had a plan. The Pompeii building collapsed precisely because of a lack of plans or a long-term outlook, and because, in the constant war with thousands of small tactics, strategy was lost.

What is the meaning of Pompeii for the world, and above all, for Italy and Europe? What right does Italy have to possess a monument that brings her admiration, attention and cash from tourism and increased spending if she allows it to collapse?

If Pompeii falls, so does the history of Italian and European identity, which was refound in the late 18th century thanks to the enlightenment and inspired by the findings of the pre-Christian Roman civilization emerging in Pompeii. The roots were in Italy, but the head, then like now, was in Germany. Three centuries ago it was Winkelmann. Today, the unfortunate task is up to the head of the continent's strongest economy - Angela Merkel.

It seems no casual coincidence that as the Pompeii house collapsed, the euro was also shaken by attacks from currency speculators who saw a growing opportunity in the widening gap in bond yields in different countries of the euro zone.

The markets had a hard time believing in "one country, two systems" when it came to trusting the new relationship between Beijing and Hong Kong in 1997, during a time of financial crisis. Similarly, now they are skeptical about "one currency, many yields" when they see the many differences under the blanket of the "one euro; good for all." It is easy for those watching the markets to bet that bond yields of weaker economies will move up and to spot the grumblings of stronger economies, like Germany, growing tired of having to pay for their profligate neighbors.

It may be true, as former EU president and adamant EU advocate Romano Prodi claims, that German industry would be worse off if Spain or Italy were to spin out of the euro because the countries would be free to devalue their currency again so that their goods would better compete with German goods. Germany, more lonely, and super exporter, could be forced to the steep revaluation of its euro-mark, without counterbalances from weaker European colleagues.

But it could also be a difficult calculation, if the loss of German competitiveness is compared with the possible losses of German finances and taxpayers' money from their neighbors' debts. Yet, ultimately, the euro now is an issue of political strategy, not simply economic calculus. Is it worth it for the stronger economies in the euro zone, like Germany, to carry the weaker ones?

The previous agreement was based on the fact that Germany was scared of itself and its ambitions (which triggered two world wars), and Germany wanted to be bound by weaker European countries that would protect her from herself. Presently, Germany, out of the unification doldrums, may feel that weaker European countries do not provide this protection, as they are just a drag for its turbo-economy.

This could not simply mean the sudden collapse of the euro, something that would start the meltdown of the global currency system. But the fragile equilibrium of the euro has been broken, and the present crisis could mean that the euro system could move back, if it doesn't move forward.

If this were to become the case, the meaning of the EU would quickly dwindle, a malaise that could also affect the meaning of Italian political and cultural unity. Italy could soon be divided in two parts, as occurred in past centuries, one drawn by its trans-Alps ties and one pulled by its Mediterranean feet.

In a way, perhaps this is already happening. If it fails at the task of protecting its monuments, Italy becomes simply a geographic expression, as Metternich put it in the early 19th century. This is well beyond the issue of the euro, and it has become a deeper cultural issue in Italy. There are those who lament, perhaps with reason, the end of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, and point a finger at the "Southerners". In this, there is already a regression, the return to the image of southern Italy as a corrupt, inferior, Arab-Bourbon kingdom pitted against the north, which is hooked to Germanic Central Europe.

This cultural feeling of separation in Italy, a politically united country, is bound to reinforce the feeling of separation in Europe, which is politically divided into independent states. Then with the return of parts of ancient Pompeii to the Vesuvius volcanic ashes, Europe needs to prove to itself that it is not only standing on the euro, but on something politically and culturally more solid. Yet, this is not happening and differences in European bond yields are growing along with speculation. Most European politicians pretend this is just an economic problem, but it is a political and cultural issue.

If Europe and Italy fail, in a way, China and the rest of the world will also fail, losing the cradle of modernization and leaving everybody more lonely, confused and possibly prone to big mistakes. (2010-12-09 Asia Times)