It's all up to the US, says North Korea (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/ED19Dg01.html)

SEOUL - This Sunday Beijing will be transformed into a busy diplomatic hub. On Easter Day, Christian-educated Indian Minister of Defense George Fernandes, the erstwhile advocate of the "China threat" theory and the man under whose direction India tested its first nuclear weapons in 1998, will arrive for a week of talks. A few days later, a North Korean and a US delegation will arrive to open multilateral talks together with the Chinese to solve the North Korea standoff.

The Indian mission is extremely significant, because it will bring to Beijing a hawk with a full plate of issues: Chinese support of Pakistan, the alleged Chinese observation posts in the Bay of Bengal, the disputed 4,000-kilometer China-India border. It is unlikely that there will be any major breakthrough on any of these issues, but it could well be the beginning of a thaw. This could also help cool down the tension in Kashmir and in many restive areas of Pakistan, where the mounting wave of Muslim fundamentalism has not stopped and certainly threatens India but could also affect China, home of some 20 million Muslims.

This could be the opening of a new chapter for China, whereas the talks with the Americans and the North Koreans could well be the beginning of the end of one. For months Pyongyang had been sharpening its rhetoric, throwing insults and engaging in provocative behavior, seemingly begging to be the target of the next US military attack. China has fiercely opposed a military solution to the North Korea problem, favoring dialogue instead. The United States accepted this Chinese stand, requesting, though, that it must be a multilateral dialogue, where the US would not become a hostage to the talks and held as the only responsible party if the talks failed. Pyongyang conversely had insisted on bilateral talks, wishing to stand chin to chin with Washington for the world to see.

China for weeks now has been forcefully prodding the North Koreans to settle down and concede some of its demands. Rumor has it that Kim Jong-il was summoned to Beijing recently. A not-so-subtle reminder of who needs whom was provided by the Chinese, who cut their flow of oil to North Korea, essential aid for the isolated regime, for three days with the dubious claim that it was unintentional.

Beijing's message reached Pyongyang's ears loud and clear. Pyongyang backpedaled and agreed on multilateral talks. This was a diplomatic triumph for China, proving that it could manage this crisis without the use of force favored by the administration of US President George W Bush. It also brings China closer to the United States in the management of North Korea. Having proved itself, Beijing will be expected to keep Pyongyang on a short leash. This increases the importance of Sino-American cooperation: the US knows that North Korea can only be controlled with Chinese assistance.

This new relationship is built upon a complex new dynamic in the region that has been strategically affected by the US decision to wage a war in Iraq while ignoring the North Korean threats. At the annual meeting of the Trilateral Commission, held this past week in Seoul, senior Japanese personalities argued that this created new priorities for Japan.

Tokyo is extremely concerned about the North Korean threat, but Washington decided that Baghdad came before Pyongyang. This signaled that US priorities might be different from Japanese priorities, therefore Japan can't entrust all of its security to the United States. It must be able to take things into its own hands when necessary. This is an argument for Japanese rearmament, which could also have an economic value, as military expenditures could help ease the present Japanese economic doldrums. Besides, Tokyo has noticed that among the younger generation in South Korea, the North is not perceived as a threat, but rather as the object of pity and concern. Consequently a North Korean nuclear program is not a threat against the South but possibly a source of Korean pride on either side of the 38th parallel, notwithstanding the Japanese concern.

Japanese rearmament should not be considered a threat against China. The same people who work for an increased Japanese military option are also those who have been keeping close contacts with the Chinese military on the solution of the North Korean issue and admit that in recent months the Chinese have been very friendly. The Chinese may understand Japan's need to take a more active role in its own security. This understanding could serve as a catalyst for China and Japan to foster trust and forge stronger ties - and ultimately achieve greater regional stability.

There is the possibility of a creation of new constellation in East Asia, with stronger cooperation among the United States, China and Japan. But the new triangular relationship is different form the past, when China aligned with the US to counter the Soviet threat. The US and China can get closer, but this will change the relationship of the two countries with Japan. Therefore, Tokyo should perhaps be allowed to rearm in order to allay its fears of isolation. It is a new delicate and sensitive game that could bind together the three nations as nothing before, but it is also full of snares, as a sudden move by any of the three sides could alarm the other two.

In this new regional geopolitical realignment, however, India must be included. Nobody can afford to ignore India, a nuclear power with a massive population and a rising economy. Both Tokyo and Washington have built many bridges with New Delhi. Fernandes' visit to Beijing is the occasion for China to make up with India, although the list of grievances is extremely long, as is the history of animosity and suspicion. But it could well be an important first step. China must take this first step with great decisiveness if it doesn't want to be left behind. (2003-04-19 Asia Times)