BEIJING - Apart from the Middle East, future terrorist action against the United States could come from Africa or Latin America. In some African countries the state structure has collapsed and central governments are in no position to control their official territory. In Latin America, large swathes of territory are under the control of criminal organizations which also might have their own grievances against Washington.
Here, American political action must be pervasive and ensure that other countries, especially the ones able to exercise influence, go along with Washington, or at least do not oppose it. Thus, agreements with China, and India and Russia, must be founded on a basis of mutual interest - the only grounds that can pre-empt possible betrayals or ill-faith.
Several issues must be considered as factors in the common interest of the US and its proto-allies: economics, United States solidarity, and the protesters of Seattle.
The world is on the brink of recession. China is the only large economy in the world that is performing well, but its size hardly allows it to drive global economic growth. China itself will be negatively affected by the global slowdown and probable upcoming US difficulties. The terrorist attacks of last week will have shaken American self-confidence. In the next weeks, if not months, it will be hard to persuade people to travel by air, and in such a huge country this is bound to have a huge economic impact. The dollar has gone down and the price of oil has risen, further denting the prospects of an immediate recovery.
Yet there is a bright side. Historically, setbacks have spurred the US into action and not pushed it into submission. Pearl Harbor led to the defeat of Japan and uncontested US rule over the Pacific Ocean; the oil crisis in the 1970s eventually reduced Opec's power. Even Vietnam, supposed to have kicked the US out of Asia, saw the US return with a vengeance. Today, the net result of the terror attacks is a greater than ever solidarity in the US, and increased political leverage that derives from the transparent capability of the country to send out the right message at the right time. The American centrality is not waning because of the attack - rather, it has dramatically increased.
For the next weeks, or months, the world will be glued to newspapers, TVs or websites to follow subsequent steps taken by the US, and for years the world will be haunted by the images of the World Trade Center, and reassured by the images of what is sure to be the US's fierce reaction and quick rebuilding of central New York, which will undoubtedly be the biggest business of the beginning of the century.
Just as now it is in America's interest to improve ties with all countries, China first of all, tomorrow, with the US recovery in full swing, it will be in China's and everybody's interests to be hooked into this recovery. There is opportunity for China in the timing. China will probably join the World Trade Organization in March next year. By then, the US economy should be in an upswing, recovering from terrorist-inflicted wounds and with an anti-terrorist strategy fully drafted. In this situation, improved relations with Beijing could bring billions of US investment dollars to China, which in turn could further fuel US and world economic recovery.
However, anti-terrorist collaboration with China and other countries is difficult. There is no common definition of terrorism, and the US believes that many people labeled as "terrorists" by China are just political dissidents who might sometime resort to force to make their voices heard. Anyway, the Chinese political system might push people to use force, as peaceful political argument is repressed.
By the same token, China is less than cooperative in isolating "rogue states", as it holds that not endorsing other states' views is not tantamount to a necessity to isolate them. In this way, China fights Muslim extremists in Xinjiang but maintains a speaking relationship with the Taliban government. Conversely, the US doesn't have a speaking relationship with the Taliban government, but allows Taliban propaganda in its territory. It thus seems that in order to address the global problem of terrorism there should be movement by both the US and China; perhaps more tolerance in China and more flexibility in American foreign policy. This can be achieved only through more dialogue and political initiatives.
This dialogue is in the interest of every state. The ideological confrontations of the 20th century have been replaced this century by a new wave of fierce, semi-religious protests against globalization. The protagonists of globalization, whether the present Group of Eight developed countries or an expanded group that includes China, India and other developing economies, must talk to the peaceful elements among the anti-globalization protesters and consider their agenda, while isolating and repressing the violent fringes which are already bordering terrorism.
On September 13, a China Daily commentary sketched the Chinese analysis of the grounds for terrorism that must be tackled:
"It has been China's consistent stance that peace and development should be recognized as the main themes of the world today, and that differences and disputes should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation rather than by resorting to force or terrorist actions.
"Regrettably, such perceptions have not been fully understood by all. The world is still afflicted by man-made scourges such as hegemony, power politics, racism, border conflicts and regional wars [?].
"Widening income disparities, social injustice and turmoil, and ethnic and religious conflicts have proved fertile ground for the terrorists. The world will never enjoy real and enduring peace unless these problems are properly addressed. When human civilization is progressing, it is a tragedy that what has taken place in the US should have happened at all."
Even in this field, the US and China should be together: they have an interest in governing this jumbled process while spreading the benefits to all countries. They have to forestall the possibility of larger violent fringes joining hands, and ideology, with the many existing terrorist groups. They must prevent chaos and violence.
For this, as in the movie Pearl Harbor, the pilots who will spearhead the US recovery will have to remember that their safety lies with China, and they must learn to say to the Chinese people, "wo shi meiguoren", I am American. (2001-09-17 Asia Times)
